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  • IRMA Predicting Weather with Spaghetti?

    The Weather Channel, ‘SPAGHETTI MODELS’  for Hurricane Irma showed  many potential paths for the storm.

    SEP 2, 2017 THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)  kept  the storm tracking further west, nearing the Bahamas by the end of next week

    Who said, IRMA was not an easy storm to forecast,  as computer SPAGETTI models disagreed with one another on important details right up until landfall?

    JAN 13, 2016 – WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS IN THE WEATHER BIZ SINCE THE 90S, BUT IT… …

    ONE OF THEM IS THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)   IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN THE GFS. (GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM) …

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    THE TOO LATE  GFS PREDICTION THAT DETERMINED IRMA’S LAND FALL  AND EVACUATION IN FLORIDA WAS TOO BIG TO IGNORE.

    BECAUSE ON SEP 2, 2017 IT WAS  THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)  THAT PREDICTED  THE STORM TRACKING FURTHER WEST…. And, the entire world  knows the rest of that story….

    AFTER THE FACT, The Canadian News media noticed, and asked on The National, “Why didn’t the U.S. use the European model for predicting Hurricane IRMA?”

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    WHY INDEED, THE FAILURE OF (GFS) IS  TOO BIG TO BE IGNORED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP.

    IRMA Predicting Weather with Spaghetti?

    Predicting and evacuating 6 million people in Florida, the largest mass evacuation in U.S. history, based on the inferior (GFS) Spaghetti model decision is too big to be ignored by the Trump Administration and  We the American people. Specifically?  the U.S Department of Energy’s engagement in and with…  and/or dis-connect with the (ECMWF).

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    The History of the WA DC Establishment’s Tactic’s, Process and Progress….

    I’m sure you’ve heard the saying, “throw spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks.” It’s a common way to describe the process of testing many different tactics at the same time in order to identify what works (sticks) and what doesn’t work (falls to the floor).

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    In spite of the too late GFS, IRMA land fall predictions for Florida, a higher authority prevailed,

    In God we trust, and with President Trump we the people  shall prevail.

    Under the administration of President Trump, to date,  68 lives were lost to Hurricane Irma.

    And, under the Trump Administration 82 lives were lost to Hurricane Harvey

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    The European model, is run by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the premiere U.S. Weather model, is the Global Forecast System (GFS).

    THE U.S. ANALOG TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF),  IS THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS).

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    TUE SEP 05 2017  500 AM AST The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) said IRMA could have “some impacts” on Florida after passing the Caribbean.

    TUE SEP 05 2017  500 AM AST The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) REMINDED USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES, SINCE THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERRORS ARE ABOUT 175 AND 225 STATUTE MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5, RESPECTIVELY.

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    Hurricane Irma path: Why ‘spaghetti models’ show range of options …

    www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-spaghetti-models-landfall-2017-9

    Sep 6, 2017 – Hurricane Irma ‘spaghetti models‘ show many potential paths for the storm — here’s … Company (the group behind The Weather Channel and the Weather … is primarily run in the US, and Euro models that come from Europe.

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    SEP 6, 2017

    Here’s what the world’s most accurate weather model predicts for Irma …

    https://arstechnica.com/…/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predic…

    SEP 6, 2017 – Note: This story was written during the afternoon of Wednesday, Sept. 6. As of Thursday morning, the forecasts discussed within are still more …A potentially catastrophic hurricane will approach southern Florida this weekend.

    Eric Berger – 9/6/2017, 12:10 PM

    Take a look at this plot of a bunch of different models from Wednesday morning. Note the dark blue line on the left-hand side of the forecast tracks—that’s the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center that was issued at 5am ET.

    THE US ANALOG TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF),  IS THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS). It has a lower resolution, and it typically doesn’t perform quite as well. The European model runs every 12 hours, so when the forecast plot was made, National Hurricane Center forecasters were working off of the 00z run, which typically comes out at about 2:30am ET. The ensemble forecasts (about 50 runs on a lower resolution model with slightly different initial conditions) typically follow about an hour later. Here’s what that ensemble data looked like for forecasters on Wednesday morning.

    CLICK ON THE LINK TO SEE the  forecast model spaghetti plot for Hurricane Irma, with an official forecast track in dark blue.

    Now, you may be wondering, “Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?” THE ANSWER IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations.

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    FRI SEP 8, 2017  BASED ON IRMA’S PROJECTED PATH, WHICH INCLUDES Florida’s heavily populated eastern coast, the enormous storm could create one of the largest mass evacuations in US history, CNN senior meteorologist Dave Hennen said. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties combined have about 6 million people.

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    JAN 13, 2016 – WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS IN THE WEATHER BIZ SINCE THE 90S, BUT IT… … ONE OF THEM IS THAT

    THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN THE GFS

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    US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma …

    https://arstechnica.com/…/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurrica…

    7 days ago – NOAA’s best weather model seems to be getting worse with hurricanes, … AT TIMES DURING HARVEY, THE EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPERFORMED HUMANS.

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    Sep 2, 2017 THE EUROPEAN MODEL kept  the storm tracking further west, nearing the Bahamas by the end of next week.

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    Tue Sep 05 2017  500 AM AST The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Irma could have “some impacts” on Florida after passing the Caribbean.

    USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES, SINCE THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERRORS ARE ABOUT 175 AND 225 STATUTE MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5, RESPECTIVELY.

    SEP 6, 2017 – Its latest NHC update said: “There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend.  The European model kept  the storm tracking further west

    SEP 7, 2017THE STORM’S EXACT PATH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR. But after seeing news reports about water and food shortages in Texas last week as Harvey blew through, Floridians want to be prepared, Florida residents are scrambling for supplies and prepping for ..

    FRI SEP 8, 2017  BASED ON IRMA’S PROJECTED PATH, WHICH INCLUDES Florida’s heavily populated eastern coast, the enormous storm could create one of the largest mass evacuations in US history, CNN senior meteorologist Dave Hennen said. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties combined have about 6 million people.

    FRI SEP 8, 2017  THOUGH NOBODY KNOWS EXACTLY WHERE IRMA WILL MAKE LANDFALL, the governors of Georgia and South Carolina decided not to take any chances. They ordered mandatory evacuations of low-lying coastal areas around Savannah and Charleston.

    Other eastern Florida population centers could also see similar evacuations soon, depending on the path of the hurricane, which is expected to near Miami on Sunday.

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    For more than a week, meteorologists had insisted that the storm would travel west along the Cuban shore before suddenly shifting north toward the Florida peninsula.

    ABC News meteorologists warned Irma could threaten a wide area of the US coast ranging from Mobile, Alabama, to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and said the forecast cone of uncertainty is now very close to including parts of southern Florida and Miami. THE EUROPEAN MODEL kept  the storm tracking further west.

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    Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it 

    WHEN 6 MILLION PEOPLE IN FLORIDA ARE EVACUATED, THE LARGEST MASS EVACUATION IN U.S. HISTORY, WAS PREDICTED  AND CAUSED BY USING   NOAA’S NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)  INFERIOR SPAGHETTI MODEL

    THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND WE THE PEOPLE NEED TO BE NOTIFIED AND INFORMED.

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    MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2017 HINDSIGHT IS 20/20 

    Hurricane Irma: How the National Weather Service Prepared – The …

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/…weather…irma/539445/

    4 days ago – A couple looks at flood waters in Jacksonville, Florida on MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, … Six million people had been evacuated on the basis of this alleged turn. … For the National Weather Service, Irma’s landfall represented an important … as its forecasters rushed to describe and predict the storm’s finale.

    If it failed to pivot, it would sail harmlessly into the Gulf of Mexico.

     Six million people had been evacuated on the basis of this alleged turn.

    Florida had declared a state of emergency, and the governor called up the national guard.

    Hurricane Irma again demonstrated the inferiority of the top U.S. weather model

    Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the GFS, particularly at intermediate to longer timescales. The issue gained prominence after Hurricane Sandy struck New Jersey in October 2012, which the European model hinted at at least a week in advance. The GFS model, however, didn’t catch on to the storm’s unusual track until about 5 days in advance. 

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    So Why Is the Euro Better?
    Many in the U.S. were embarrassed when the Euro beat the GFS badly for Sandy. It even got Congress whipped into a lather, and they approved tens of millions to upgrade the computers at NOAA — the agency that runs the National Weather Service. NOAA just announced that their Supercomputer is “running at record speed,” and that it “secures the U.S. reputation as a world leader…”“A” world leader, but not “THE” world leader…

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    Why the European Weather Model Remains King Over National …

    www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/…/European-Weather-Model-National-Weather-S…

    Jan 13, 2016 – We’ve been talking about this in the weather biz since the 90s, but it… … One of them is that the European model is always better than the GFS. … Since the GFS is just a part of NOAA’s many computer models, changing the …

    How do I know that? You can call it “chaos,” “The Butterfly Effect,” or simply “poorer initialization.” This gets complicated, but the basic story is: “garbage in, garbage out.” OK, it’s not garbage — it just isn’t as good as the way the Euro does it.

    The reason weather forecasts can never be perfect is that we can never perfectly input the exact current conditions all over the world — at all levels of the atmosphere. We’d need to measure every cubic inch of the earth!

    MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz is credited with recognizing how chaos theory applies to weather forecasting. His famous paper in 1972 was titled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” So, something as seemingly small and trivial as a butterfly flap could lead to changes in weather patterns around the world days, weeks, or months later. Small initial errors lead to bigger and bigger errors over time.

    So, the more accurate a computer model can get the current conditions, the more accurate the model is likely to be. Sure, there are dozens of other factors, but it’s like giving the Euro a 10-yard head start in a 100-yard dash. It’s possible to win, but awfully hard.
    Read more: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/European-Weather-Model-National-Weather-Service-365163381.html#ixzz4srcMMnbm
    Follow us: @nbcphiladelphia on Twitter | NBCPhiladelphia on Facebook

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    Predicting Weather with Spaghetti

    IS AN OVERSIMPLIFICATION FOR STUPID VOTERS………..

    HOWEVER, Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the GFS.

    And, Hurricane Irma again demonstrated the inferiority of the top U.S. weather model.

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    What does PWG / PWE / GFS / ECMWF stand for? – PredictWind Help …

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe and is based at Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom.

    https://support.predictwind.com/…/200214005-What-does-PWG-PWE-GFS-ECMWF…

    PWG stands for the PredictWind weather model that uses the NCEP global initial conditions for the model run and PWE is the PredictWind weather model that uses the ECMWF global initial conditions, both of these sources enable us to run our own worldwide weather models, we are the only company in the world that produces ...

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    Super-parametrization in climate and what do we learn from … – ECMWF

    https://www.ecmwf.int/…/13366-super-parametrization-climate-and-what-do-we-learn…

    Sep 4, 2015 – 305K (Future). W/m2. RCE. • SGS parameterizations can significantly alter climate … All superparameterization does is compute Q1 and Q2 …. Fall 2014: SP is in IFS Single-Column Model CY40R1;. • Currently … Preliminary results using T159 … http://www.cmmap.org/research/pubs-mmf.html. Lots of MMF …


  • Update Sept 3, 2017 Harvey Flooding Disaster

    FOX NEWS  SEPT 3, 2017 GENERAL JOSEPH LENGYEL, CHIEF NATIONAL GUARD BUREAU

    THOUSANDS STILL TRAPPED IN FLOODED HOMES, ONE MILLION DISPLACED

    RESCUE EFFORTS STILL UNDERWAY NINE DAYS AFTER HARVEY RIPS THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA

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    Sunday Sept 3, 2017

    Mandatory evacuation issued for flooded homes … – ABC13 Houston

    abc13.com/power-cut-in-parts-of-west-houston-evacuation-zone/2370185/

    3 hours ago – Sunday Sept 3, 2017 A mandatory evacuation has been issued for homes in west … water in the west Houston evacuation zone will lose power on Sunday morning. Crews began to cut power to flooded homes in a west Houston evacuation zone …

    The threat of ELECTROCUTION also played a role in the decision to cut power.

    “It’s in the best interest of public safety,” Turner said.

    The homes are expected to be inundated for the next two weeks as controlled releases from the reservoirs continue, officials said.

    Residents whose homes had not taken on water are not included in the evacuation order and will not have their power cut.

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    Immediate risks from floods include death by drowning — often people drown in their cars as they try to flee — ELECTROCUTION, and hypothermia.

    Fears of cholera and typhoid add to challenges for Texas

    https://www.ft.com/content/86550468-8e68-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d

    2 days ago – Authorities warn of dangers of wading in contaminated waters in Harvey’s wake. … Fears of cholera and typhoid added to the challenges facing Texas in the … on Thursday warned residents not to wade in the city’s flood water. … that tested water in the area had E Coli levels 125 times higher than what is …

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    Sewage-laden floodwaters dumped on Texas by Hurricane Harvey bring a higher risk of disease, such as bacterial infections and mosquito-borne illnesses,

     AND THE FALLOUT MAY LINGER FOR YEARS, EXPERTS WARN.

    The long-term picture could be even more dire, as communities grapple with immense amounts of polluted water in the streets, in homes and businesses.

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    Flooded Texas faces higher risk of disease, experts warn – MSN.com

    www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/flooded-texas-faces-higher-risk-of…/ar-AAqQMuL

    6 days ago – When floodwater washes over a heavily populated metro area like Houston, it is sure to be dirty and dangerous, experts say. … drinking water system, raising the risk of contaminated water and with it, cholera. …. Slide 125 of 146: Houston Police SWAT officer Daryl Hudeck carries Catherine Pham and her.

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    A Sea of Health and Environmental Hazards in Houston’s Floodwaters …

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/us/houston-contaminated-floodwaters.html?…1

    3 days ago – Navigating floodwaters brought by Harvey on Tuesday in Houston. … “Well water is at risk for being contaminated,” Dr. Persse said, “and the …

    Officials in Houston are just beginning to grapple with the health and environmental risks that lurk in the waters dumped by Hurricane Harvey, a stew of toxic chemicals, sewage, debris and waste that still floods much of the city.

    Flooded sewers are stoking fears of cholera, typhoid and other infectious diseases. Runoff from the city’s sprawling petroleum and chemicals complex contains any number of hazardous compounds. Lead, arsenic and other toxic and carcinogenic elements may be leaching from some two dozen Superfund sites in the Houston area.

    Porfirio Villarreal, a spokesman for the Houston Health Department, said the hazards of the water enveloping the city were self-evident.

    “There’s no need to test it,” he said. “It’s contaminated. There’s millions of contaminants.”

    HE SAID HEALTH OFFICIALS WERE URGING PEOPLE TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER IF THEY COULD, although it is already too late for tens of thousands.

    “WE’RE TELLING PEOPLE TO AVOID THE FLOODWATER AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

     DON’T LET YOUR CHILDREN PLAY IN IT. AND IF YOU DO TOUCH IT, WASH IT OFF,”

    1. VILLARREAL SAID. “REMEMBER, THIS IS GOING TO GO ON FOR WEEKS.”

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    Pictures how toxic brown flood water has ravaged Texas | Daily Mail …

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/…/Satellite-images-taken-months-apart-flooding-Texas.html

    2 days ago – Officials said most of the flooded waters are expected to recede by the end of the … After on August 30: The city had a mandatory evacuation on … without water as the storm continues to dump record-setting amounts of rain.

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    Harvey flooding: Beaumont water system fails, chemical plant has …

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/harveys-wake-drifts-north-as-battered-coast-left-wit…

    1 day ago – Crippled water system, chemical plant blaze, vivid examples of … aircraft through the smoke and monitoring for toxic chemicals. … reservoirs to evacuate as the Army Corps of Engineers continues to release water from them.

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    Sewage, debris, mosquitoes: flood waters increase health risk for …

    https://www.theguardian.com › US News › Houston

    4 days ago – Flood waters were still pouring into homes in Houston – bringing with them a … mosquitoes: flood waters increase health risk for Harvey victims.

    A week after Harvey, cities deluged and 1 million displaced – AOL News

    https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/09/01/a…1-million-displaced/23190398/

    2 days ago – Harvey has displaced over a million people, with 44 feared dead from flooding that paralyzed Houston and knocked out the drinking water …

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    Less than 20% Harvey victims have flood insurance as FEMA braces …

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/08/…/insurance…flood…/613239001/

    5 days ago – Insurance woes await flood victims in under-covered Houston area. … one-in-five homes in the greater Houston area are covered by flood … 20% of homeowners with flood damage in the region have insurance …. 5 hours ago.

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    FEMA expects more than 450,000 Harvey disaster victims to file for …

    https://www.cnbc.com/…/fema-expects-more-than-450000-harvey-disaster-victims-to-…

    FEMA expects more than 450,000 Harvey disaster victims to file for assistance. Published 7:26 AM ET Mon, 28 Aug 2017 | Updated 10:53 AM ET Mon, 28 Aug … people were expected to seek disaster assistance due to flooding after Harvey …

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    President Donald J. Trump Proclaims September 3, 2017, as a

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/…/president-donald-j-trump-proclaims-september-3-201…

    2 days ago – President Donald J. Trump Proclaims September 3, 2017, as a National Day of Prayer for the Victims of Hurricane Harvey and for our National …

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    Congress has one month to fix flood insurance. Hurricane Harvey …

    www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article170083372.html

    5 days ago – Congress must renew the National Flood Insurance Program by Sept 30, 2017. … Florida, with more than 1.7 million policies, has 35 percent of the 5 … Could Hurricane Harvey impact South Florida’s homeowner insurance rates?

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    DHS/FEMA/NFIP Funding Ends Sept 30, 2017

    Posted on August 27, 2017 9:42 am by Pearl Rains Hewett Comment

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    FEMA | Homeland Security

    https://www.dhs.gov/keywords/fema

    DHS ACTIVATES SURGE CAPACITY FORCE TO SUPPORT RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DEVASTATION. … This voluntary program for federal employees within the Department of Homeland Security allows non-FEMA employees an opportunity to support disaster response efforts.

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is an agency of the United States Department of Homeland Security, initially created by Presidential Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1978 and implemented by two Executive Orders on April 1, 1979.

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    To be continued…. Release Date: September 3, 2017

    For Immediate Release
    FEMA News Desk
    Phone: 202-646-3272

    The Road to Recovery: The Federal Family’s Coordinated Efforts to Support Survivors in the Aftermath of Hurricane Harvey