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IRMA Predicting Weather with Spaghetti?

The Weather Channel, ‘SPAGHETTI MODELS’  for Hurricane Irma showed  many potential paths for the storm.

SEP 2, 2017 THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)  kept  the storm tracking further west, nearing the Bahamas by the end of next week

Who said, IRMA was not an easy storm to forecast,  as computer SPAGETTI models disagreed with one another on important details right up until landfall?

JAN 13, 2016 – WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS IN THE WEATHER BIZ SINCE THE 90S, BUT IT… …

ONE OF THEM IS THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)   IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN THE GFS. (GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM) …

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THE TOO LATE  GFS PREDICTION THAT DETERMINED IRMA’S LAND FALL  AND EVACUATION IN FLORIDA WAS TOO BIG TO IGNORE.

BECAUSE ON SEP 2, 2017 IT WAS  THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)  THAT PREDICTED  THE STORM TRACKING FURTHER WEST…. And, the entire world  knows the rest of that story….

AFTER THE FACT, The Canadian News media noticed, and asked on The National, “Why didn’t the U.S. use the European model for predicting Hurricane IRMA?”

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WHY INDEED, THE FAILURE OF (GFS) IS  TOO BIG TO BE IGNORED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP.

IRMA Predicting Weather with Spaghetti?

Predicting and evacuating 6 million people in Florida, the largest mass evacuation in U.S. history, based on the inferior (GFS) Spaghetti model decision is too big to be ignored by the Trump Administration and  We the American people. Specifically?  the U.S Department of Energy’s engagement in and with…  and/or dis-connect with the (ECMWF).

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The History of the WA DC Establishment’s Tactic’s, Process and Progress….

I’m sure you’ve heard the saying, “throw spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks.” It’s a common way to describe the process of testing many different tactics at the same time in order to identify what works (sticks) and what doesn’t work (falls to the floor).

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In spite of the too late GFS, IRMA land fall predictions for Florida, a higher authority prevailed,

In God we trust, and with President Trump we the people  shall prevail.

Under the administration of President Trump, to date,  68 lives were lost to Hurricane Irma.

And, under the Trump Administration 82 lives were lost to Hurricane Harvey

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The European model, is run by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the premiere U.S. Weather model, is the Global Forecast System (GFS).

THE U.S. ANALOG TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF),  IS THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS).

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TUE SEP 05 2017  500 AM AST The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) said IRMA could have “some impacts” on Florida after passing the Caribbean.

TUE SEP 05 2017  500 AM AST The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) REMINDED USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES, SINCE THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERRORS ARE ABOUT 175 AND 225 STATUTE MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5, RESPECTIVELY.

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Hurricane Irma path: Why ‘spaghetti models’ show range of options …

www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-spaghetti-models-landfall-2017-9

Sep 6, 2017 – Hurricane Irma ‘spaghetti models‘ show many potential paths for the storm — here’s … Company (the group behind The Weather Channel and the Weather … is primarily run in the US, and Euro models that come from Europe.

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SEP 6, 2017

Here’s what the world’s most accurate weather model predicts for Irma …

https://arstechnica.com/…/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predic…

SEP 6, 2017 – Note: This story was written during the afternoon of Wednesday, Sept. 6. As of Thursday morning, the forecasts discussed within are still more …A potentially catastrophic hurricane will approach southern Florida this weekend.

Eric Berger – 9/6/2017, 12:10 PM

Take a look at this plot of a bunch of different models from Wednesday morning. Note the dark blue line on the left-hand side of the forecast tracks—that’s the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center that was issued at 5am ET.

THE US ANALOG TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF),  IS THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS). It has a lower resolution, and it typically doesn’t perform quite as well. The European model runs every 12 hours, so when the forecast plot was made, National Hurricane Center forecasters were working off of the 00z run, which typically comes out at about 2:30am ET. The ensemble forecasts (about 50 runs on a lower resolution model with slightly different initial conditions) typically follow about an hour later. Here’s what that ensemble data looked like for forecasters on Wednesday morning.

CLICK ON THE LINK TO SEE the  forecast model spaghetti plot for Hurricane Irma, with an official forecast track in dark blue.

Now, you may be wondering, “Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?” THE ANSWER IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations.

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FRI SEP 8, 2017  BASED ON IRMA’S PROJECTED PATH, WHICH INCLUDES Florida’s heavily populated eastern coast, the enormous storm could create one of the largest mass evacuations in US history, CNN senior meteorologist Dave Hennen said. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties combined have about 6 million people.

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JAN 13, 2016 – WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS IN THE WEATHER BIZ SINCE THE 90S, BUT IT… … ONE OF THEM IS THAT

THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN THE GFS

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US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma …

https://arstechnica.com/…/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurrica…

7 days ago – NOAA’s best weather model seems to be getting worse with hurricanes, … AT TIMES DURING HARVEY, THE EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPERFORMED HUMANS.

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Sep 2, 2017 THE EUROPEAN MODEL kept  the storm tracking further west, nearing the Bahamas by the end of next week.

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Tue Sep 05 2017  500 AM AST The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Irma could have “some impacts” on Florida after passing the Caribbean.

USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES, SINCE THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERRORS ARE ABOUT 175 AND 225 STATUTE MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5, RESPECTIVELY.

SEP 6, 2017 – Its latest NHC update said: “There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend.  The European model kept  the storm tracking further west

SEP 7, 2017THE STORM’S EXACT PATH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR. But after seeing news reports about water and food shortages in Texas last week as Harvey blew through, Floridians want to be prepared, Florida residents are scrambling for supplies and prepping for ..

FRI SEP 8, 2017  BASED ON IRMA’S PROJECTED PATH, WHICH INCLUDES Florida’s heavily populated eastern coast, the enormous storm could create one of the largest mass evacuations in US history, CNN senior meteorologist Dave Hennen said. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties combined have about 6 million people.

FRI SEP 8, 2017  THOUGH NOBODY KNOWS EXACTLY WHERE IRMA WILL MAKE LANDFALL, the governors of Georgia and South Carolina decided not to take any chances. They ordered mandatory evacuations of low-lying coastal areas around Savannah and Charleston.

Other eastern Florida population centers could also see similar evacuations soon, depending on the path of the hurricane, which is expected to near Miami on Sunday.

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For more than a week, meteorologists had insisted that the storm would travel west along the Cuban shore before suddenly shifting north toward the Florida peninsula.

ABC News meteorologists warned Irma could threaten a wide area of the US coast ranging from Mobile, Alabama, to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and said the forecast cone of uncertainty is now very close to including parts of southern Florida and Miami. THE EUROPEAN MODEL kept  the storm tracking further west.

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Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it 

WHEN 6 MILLION PEOPLE IN FLORIDA ARE EVACUATED, THE LARGEST MASS EVACUATION IN U.S. HISTORY, WAS PREDICTED  AND CAUSED BY USING   NOAA’S NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)  INFERIOR SPAGHETTI MODEL

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND WE THE PEOPLE NEED TO BE NOTIFIED AND INFORMED.

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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2017 HINDSIGHT IS 20/20 

Hurricane Irma: How the National Weather Service Prepared – The …

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/…weather…irma/539445/

4 days ago – A couple looks at flood waters in Jacksonville, Florida on MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, … Six million people had been evacuated on the basis of this alleged turn. … For the National Weather Service, Irma’s landfall represented an important … as its forecasters rushed to describe and predict the storm’s finale.

If it failed to pivot, it would sail harmlessly into the Gulf of Mexico.

 Six million people had been evacuated on the basis of this alleged turn.

Florida had declared a state of emergency, and the governor called up the national guard.

Hurricane Irma again demonstrated the inferiority of the top U.S. weather model

Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the GFS, particularly at intermediate to longer timescales. The issue gained prominence after Hurricane Sandy struck New Jersey in October 2012, which the European model hinted at at least a week in advance. The GFS model, however, didn’t catch on to the storm’s unusual track until about 5 days in advance. 

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So Why Is the Euro Better?
Many in the U.S. were embarrassed when the Euro beat the GFS badly for Sandy. It even got Congress whipped into a lather, and they approved tens of millions to upgrade the computers at NOAA — the agency that runs the National Weather Service. NOAA just announced that their Supercomputer is “running at record speed,” and that it “secures the U.S. reputation as a world leader…”“A” world leader, but not “THE” world leader…

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Why the European Weather Model Remains King Over National …

www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/…/European-Weather-Model-National-Weather-S…

Jan 13, 2016 – We’ve been talking about this in the weather biz since the 90s, but it… … One of them is that the European model is always better than the GFS. … Since the GFS is just a part of NOAA’s many computer models, changing the …

How do I know that? You can call it “chaos,” “The Butterfly Effect,” or simply “poorer initialization.” This gets complicated, but the basic story is: “garbage in, garbage out.” OK, it’s not garbage — it just isn’t as good as the way the Euro does it.

The reason weather forecasts can never be perfect is that we can never perfectly input the exact current conditions all over the world — at all levels of the atmosphere. We’d need to measure every cubic inch of the earth!

MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz is credited with recognizing how chaos theory applies to weather forecasting. His famous paper in 1972 was titled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” So, something as seemingly small and trivial as a butterfly flap could lead to changes in weather patterns around the world days, weeks, or months later. Small initial errors lead to bigger and bigger errors over time.

So, the more accurate a computer model can get the current conditions, the more accurate the model is likely to be. Sure, there are dozens of other factors, but it’s like giving the Euro a 10-yard head start in a 100-yard dash. It’s possible to win, but awfully hard.
Read more: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/European-Weather-Model-National-Weather-Service-365163381.html#ixzz4srcMMnbm
Follow us: @nbcphiladelphia on Twitter | NBCPhiladelphia on Facebook

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Predicting Weather with Spaghetti

IS AN OVERSIMPLIFICATION FOR STUPID VOTERS………..

HOWEVER, Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the GFS.

And, Hurricane Irma again demonstrated the inferiority of the top U.S. weather model.

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What does PWG / PWE / GFS / ECMWF stand for? – PredictWind Help …

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe and is based at Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom.

https://support.predictwind.com/…/200214005-What-does-PWG-PWE-GFS-ECMWF…

PWG stands for the PredictWind weather model that uses the NCEP global initial conditions for the model run and PWE is the PredictWind weather model that uses the ECMWF global initial conditions, both of these sources enable us to run our own worldwide weather models, we are the only company in the world that produces ...

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Super-parametrization in climate and what do we learn from … – ECMWF

https://www.ecmwf.int/…/13366-super-parametrization-climate-and-what-do-we-learn…

Sep 4, 2015 – 305K (Future). W/m2. RCE. • SGS parameterizations can significantly alter climate … All superparameterization does is compute Q1 and Q2 …. Fall 2014: SP is in IFS Single-Column Model CY40R1;. • Currently … Preliminary results using T159 … http://www.cmmap.org/research/pubs-mmf.html. Lots of MMF …

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